Progressive Politics UK
Wednesday, September 24, 2003
  Hi, just a quick post to plug one of my favorite websites www.GlobalSecurity.org. This is the site of a Virginia based military think-tank which has tended to be a few steps ahead of the mainstream media when it comes to events on the ground. Although there is no such thing as objective reporting in war this site has tried more than most to maintain a studied objectivity. As such they are a major source for military information for a number of international media outlets. Kindly GlobalSecurity republish all articles they have contributed to on their website. Yesterday they posted the following article from Al Jazeerah Sharon Policies Will Put Israel in Dire Peril. It provides a rather scary window on the Arab prospective regarding events in Iraq and the Middle East. 
Wednesday, September 03, 2003
  Greetings,

Well “La Grande Vacance” is finally over. Time to get back to business. During my metaphorical sojourn on the Côte D’Azur all hell appears to have been let loss. Yet nothing has really changed! The notable exception is Alastair Campbell’s resignation. This undoubtedly will have a monumental effect on the New Labour project. However, this move was far from unexpected amongst political commentators. Neither the debate regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction, the death of Dr David Kelly or the Hutton Inquiry were the catalysts for this resignation. For that, one needs to look back to the Carole Caplin episode.

My views on this whole episode are that we are watching a tragedy unfold before our eyes. Clearly Dr Kelly was a man of old fashion principles and values caught in the midst of a modern maelstrom of media and political intrigue, where very different principles and values applied. One can only feel sorrow for his family and their loss.

So Tony Blair will survive this, as he survived the fuel crisis. He has no opposition, the economy is still motoring along nicely and he's throwing money at the public services like confetti. More importantly though, the public at large is numbed to this story. Unless something totally sensational is unearthed, which is unlikely, then this enquiry will not impinge on the public consciousness in a major way again.

After thirty plus years in Northern Ireland the British public are resilient to the steady stream of army deaths in Iraq. The US public isn’t! The fallout of the fall of Baghdad will be felt most in the USA. Bush is facing a sinking economy, a record Federal deficit and the prospects of a prolonged guerrilla war in Iraq. The rumour mill is already speculating that Hillary Clinton has smelt blood and is preparing to enter the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. If so, all bets are off on a Bush re-election!

Finally let me turn to the really sensational news of the summer. The “Russian Revolution” at The Bridge! Roman Abramovich’s millions have been a breath of fresh air in the Premiership. Finally it looks like the tedious Man U and Arsenals stranglehold on the title may be broken. For us denizens of SW6 life doesn’t get much better than this! 
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Poll Watch

PARTY RATINGS

and indicate whether Labour Party numbers are up or down from the previous poll.

For historical poll numbers for all of the outfits below, you can't beat the MORI - Voting intentions (Westminster) - all companies' polls.

The Times/Populus Mar 5-7
Con %: 34 (+3)
Lab %: 36 (0)
Lib Dem %: 22 (-3)
Other %: 8 (0)
Lab Lead % ±: +2 (-3)

Mail on Sunday/Yougov Dec 5-6
Con %: 36 (+2)
Lab %: 36 (0)
Lib Dem %: 23 (-1)
Other %: 5 (-1)
Lab Lead % ±: 0 (-2)

Guardian/ICM Research Feb 20-22
Con %: 34 (0)
Lab %: 36 (-3)
Lib Dem %: 21 (+1)
Other 8 (+1)
Lab Lead % ±: +2 (-3)

Daily Telegraph/Yougov Jan 20-22
Con %: 40 (+1)
Lab %: 35 (-3)
Lib Dem %: 19 (+1)
Other %: 6 (+1)
Lab Lead % ±: -5 (-4)

MORI Feb 12-16
Con %: 35 (0)
Lab %: 36 (-1)
Lib Dem %: 21 (0)
Other %: 8 (+1)
Lab Lead % ±: +1 (-1)

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